Iran, Hizbullah and Israel: Truce or Threat?


By Cristina C. Giancchini

Summer is less than a month away but the intelligence world is already feeling the heat: Iran told Hizbullah to stop the war against Israel and Hizbullah's new military chief stated that the Jewish State is a “friend and a strategic ally”. So what do we have here: truce or threat?

The Iranian Reset?

Threatening Israel is Hizbullah's usual shtick but – in what could be seen as a surprise move – the Party of G-d changed the tune and it has now declared truce with her. Iran has reportedly ordered the organisation to stop warring Israel and focus on the true enemy instead: Saudi Arabia. How much does this decision owe to the nuclear framework between the West and Iran? One may assume that in exchange for more overture – and consequent investments – Iran agreed to change her stance regarding the Jewish State; but is it enough an explanation?

There is something going on behind the diplomatic scenes that has not transpired to the public yet. Iran has not changed her rhetoric regarding Israel - as it continues to threaten the latter saying she holds the technology to destroy the Jewish State in minutes; so why order Hizbullah to declare truce with her?
'If the Supreme Leader’s orders [are] to be executed, with the abilities and the equipment at our disposal, we will raze the Zionist regime in less than eight minutes.' - Ahmad Karimpour,  adviser to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ elite unit al-Quds Force

Hizbullah's apparent change of stance may mean a few different things:
  • The organisation is sending a message to Hamas – now is not the time to wage a war against Israel, so they must not escalate the conflict into an all out war
  • The organisation is admitting the war in Syria is depleting their resources
  • Iran wants to show the world she can call off her dogs any time – unlike Saudi Arabia, she controls her 'terror elements', presenting thus herself as a much more powerful and flexible political partner to deal with
  • Iran is sending a message to the Party of G-d to re-direct its attention, for now, to Saudi Arabia – meaning Hizbullah is to either attack rebel groups directly and indirectly sponsored by the Saudis, in Syria; or they are to send fighters to Yemen to help the Houthis
  • Iran and the Party of G-d are removing their support from the Palestinian Resistance Movements and declaring truce with Israel is a way of saying they are backing down – is the move intended to ingratiate themselves near the US?
  • Persians and Arabs may be vying for Israel, despite the obsolete rhetoric, which would be quite interesting a development – and an explanation to why presently only the Europeans persist upon the Palestinian question. 

The 2,000km-range Missiles



Iran has successfully tested a missile with a range of 2,000 Km, adding that it can now destroy Israel in eight minutes; however, when we look at the picture above it's clear the Iranian missiles can reach Russia, the Balkans, Kazakhstan, China, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Kingdoms, Egypt, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and countries in between, therefore singling Israel out may be a diversion tactic – particularly in the present context of an apparent truce – being thus the true Iranian target Saudi Arabia and partners.

Given the reports that Iran is ordering her proxies to focus on fighting Saudi Arabia, we may assume that Iran is preparing a war against the Saudis & Cº; however, the question is whether it's going to be a cold war or a hot war – when we recall that Saudi Arabia has also been seeking to have nuclear weapons since the 1980's.

The Middle East is changing and so is the way the game is being played. As for Israel, she must keep her guard up inasmuch as DS is not convinced of the Arab overture. Not yet. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to understand what Iran knows, exactly, and wants.


(Image I: Cannon Fodder - Victor Ostrovsky)
(Image II: Map - retrieved from Daily Mail)

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]

Comments

  1. So basically Israel is used for rhetoric but they are eyeing the destruction of Arabs, Saudi Arabia? I dunno but it's a different way of looking at it. Still, Israel must watch her six cause I suspect a major attack may be on the way.

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  2. Per what you said, I think it is a matter of prioritizing enemies.

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  3. Perhaps a counter offer to the one made by the Gulf States earlier. Iran knows that Isreal maintains strong backdoor relationships with her neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and perhaps Even Syria. Iran also knows that with the sanctions lifted, she cannot afford to be at war with Israel and she knows Israel can also strike Iran at any time. Now may be a good time as she is vulnerable. Iran as also be taking advantage of the political changes in Israel and the peace talks with the PLA. She may want to influence them and take control of the PLA. She is also conscious of a re arming Egypt and stability in Libya. Once, IS is no longer a threat, Iran wants to maintain its foothold in Syria, its influence over Hizbullah and Hamas and its strong stand in Iraq. This gives it access to the Med. Sea and markets for its energy products. I agree, Israel and the event the Sheikdoms have to take this with several grains of salt.

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  4. Hi Cristina,

    I'd say we have both a truce and threat. Truce: despite the rhetoric, Iran doesn't intend to attack Israel and may even put a moratorium on attacks by Hezbollah. As for halting Hamas, I doubt it because Hamas has to keep up its activities for propaganda purposes and to show it still has power and relevance. But things can change as Tehran seems cosier with the Islamic Jihad.
    Threat: for now Saudi Arabia is threatened by Iran, but in the future they may come to some sort of understanding if politics allows for it, and Israel then may become a target again (although now it's now convenient).

    I agree that the Palestinian cause is becoming irrelevant, gradually, and PA is the one to blame.

    Cheers

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  5. I'm not buying it. I think Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map but knows that she can just raze it down too. Maybe Iran will find ways of attacking Israel other than going nuclear which would piss off the Americans, but she can always use the Islamic Jihad. So Israel must watch her back!
    I'm wondering if Iran will ever attack Saudi Arabia? That would be interesting to see but only if Israel would stay out of it, but can she? Good job, Cristina.

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  6. It has happened before: Iran and Israel as allies. It can happen again, who knows? I trust the Iranians more than the Arabs that's for sure. So we never know, folks.

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  7. Thank you all for your comments, I appreciate them. Anonymous I will be back to you soon.

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