Will the Saudi-Iranian Proxy War Expand in the Gulf?


By Scott Morgan

Is the impasse over? This is an interesting question to ponder in the Middle East at this point of time. Attempts to hold peace talks regarding Syria, in Geneva, plus those that were taking place in Kuwait, regarding Yemen, have for most purposes broken down.

We know the recent history of both countries. Syria is the last country to suffer from what analysts consider to be the Arab Spring, while in Yemen an entrenched leader sought to remain in power - only to be ousted and linked up with a faction - and has sought to regain the Presidency.

It is also interesting to note how these conflicts have broken down. The old distrust between the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam have once again risen to the foreground. The Sunnis in Northern Iraq and Syria along with the Forces of the current government in Yemen are being backed by the Saudis. The Shia controlled government in Iraq along with the current regime in Damascus along with the Insurgents in Yemen are being backed by Tehran.

So, in recent days, the Saudis have resumed Air Strikes in Yemen. Fighting around Aleppo, in Syria, has also increased in recent days. Thus, with the focus of the World’s Attention focused on these two locations: is there any place out where this proxy war could get hot without much attention by the Mainstream Media?

There is a logical place where this could happen. Maybe that statement should be changed to where signs of that happening are already seen. That place is Bahrain. The United States should be keenly aware and interested in what goes on in this country. 

Why should the US be aware of what occurs in Bahrain? It is the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. This is the Naval Presence that we have in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. From a National Security Perspective the US should monitor events that take place in this Monarchy. 

So why should Bahrain be monitored? It has a unique issue. The ruling family is Sunni. The population however is mostly Shia and has close traditional ties to Iraq. In fact during the uprisings during the Arab Spring Saudi Ground Forces entered Bahrain to assist the Bahraini government in quelling the uprising. Since then there has been periodic anti-western outbreaks of violence targeting westerners and their vehicles during protests.

Even though there is no specific timeline for any operation to take place in Bahrain the pieces are there to be exploited by either the Kingdom or the Islamic Republic. Therefore Bahrain has to be considered to be a Flashpoint.

A Major Event in Bahrain could result in a substantial loss of life among American Military Personnel and Oil Field Workers. Could that be a factor in someone creating a False Flag Operation to draw a US Military Response to break another impasse? A terrorist incident will be one way to elicit a response in this scenario.

As long as relations between Riyadh and Tehran remain cool and hostile towards each other and they seek victories by proxy, Bahrain is a location that should not be ignored.
                                  

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]

Comments

  1. True, Bahrain is an important spot to watch. Iran may want to disrupt it again like they did in the past, so it's good to keep an eye on it too. But a proxy war there? Maybe, maybe not. Will see.

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  2. I think a terrorist attack is more likely to happen to pull the Americans in.

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  3. Hey Morgan,

    Excellent post. I agree that we need to keep an eye on Bahrain and continue to follow Iraq closely too. The ME may explode even further soon, especially if the US and Arab countries do not change policy. As for Iran: I suspect the US is just waiting for the Iranians to make the wrong move.

    Cheers

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