Russia's Multi-Layered Syrian Strategy and Pres. Abbas' Israeli Targets


Two interesting events have captured our attention last week: the Russian withdrawal from Syria (President Putin has announced they have reached their objectives) and the threat that President Abbas issued against key Israeli targets.

Russia's withdrawal

A week ago, Russia started withdrawing from Syria. Washington Post (WPost) describes the withdrawal and offers cogent reasons to why Russia decided to make such a move right now. On my part, I thought I should complement everybody else's analysis on the matter.


I – Currency Appreciation

Vladimir's announcement caused the rouble to appreciate (by +1%). Economic experts have offered their explanations of why this occurred and why it's not necessarily a bad thing for Russia; but very little was mentioned about the fact that the rouble may also have appreciated because of the increase in Russian exports, namely of military commodities.

Russia used the Syrian civil war for many reasons (to increase its influence in the Middle East, to show Washington that it had more influence in the region; to show that President Putin was a much stronger leader than President Obama; that Russia was more effective in the fight against ISIS; that the West-imposed sanctions [stemming from the Ukrainian crisis] had not entirely affected Russia, to eventually lead the West to drop them and remove the isolation blocks etc) but the main reason was to showcase the effectiveness of their new weapons, thus drawing more clients into its carnet.

For instance, ever since Russia got involved in the Syrian war, the demand for the S-400 missile defence system increased: China (6 batteries), India (5 batteries) and Iran (1 battery[?]). The demand for S300 has also gone up: Iran (unspecified number of batteries), Egypt (4 batteries), Lebanon (unspecified number) and Syria (some talk of 4 batteries). We are talking about deals that amount to billions of dollars – surely one of the results of the sanctions imposed on Russia that had far more reaching repercussions than the West anticipated.


II – Change of Tactics

Russia may also be withdrawing because it decided that it will use its special forces more (a trend in the military universe today). At the same time, it may have also decided that it will support Bashar al-Assad in a different front: by fighting Turkey. It should not be inferred from this statement that Russia will wage an all out war against the Turks, nay – what Russia might do is to go back to an ancient Soviet tactic of outsourcing terrorists to carry out attacks in Turkish soil in order to disrupt the country's economy and political fabric. For political expedience, Turkey insists on pointing the finger at the PKK every time it suffers terror attacks, however it's not realising that Russia has an interest in supporting the Kurdish Cause to increase even more its influence in the Middle East.

A sign that Russia is not entirely leaving Syria is the S400 missile defence system being left behind – as a warning to Turkey and perhaps the US-led coalition who may feel tempted to undertake a regime change “by accident”.
When it is seen that the political component will move forward successfully, and the Syrian army and police are capable of destroying hotbeds of terrorism in Syria on their own, then we will possibly think about the S-400 (and its removal) - Viktor Ozerov (chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian Upper House of Parliament)
We should also be wondering whether the Russian decision isn't the result of intel gathered from the female terrorist that beheaded a 4 year-old child's head while babysitting her – it was reported the women was schizophrenic but what if she wasn't and, in fact, shared the plans ISIS had for Russia due to its direct involvement in the Syrian civil war?


President Abbas Points to Israeli Targets

President Mahmoud Abbas gave a comical, duplicitous and insidious interview to a Kuwaiti news outlet where he claimed to be determined to stop the violent struggle against Israel. He was very careful in selecting the right words for both Arab and Western consumption.

For the Arab audience he used vocabulary like “struggle” (as part of the usual Arab victimisation tactic, to evoke the so-called Nakba), “liberate Palestine” (i.e. the struggle against the so-called occupier) and “attack Palestinians” (to justify their aggression against Israel as the Quran says a Submitter must not be an aggressor since All'ah doesn't like aggressors, but if suffering aggression then the Submitter can respond in kind).

For the Western audience he used words like “determined to stop the violent struggle” (he does not want violence, though he incites it and he's committed to peace – so pass the dollars, please), “2000-2005...violent struggle” (instead of Second Intifada), "be able to liberate Palestine eventually if the state is built gradually, brick after brick." (war of attrition against Israel - i.e. Third intifada albeit in a different fashion), “peaceful popular uprising” and “massive protests and demonstrations against the occupation” (i.e. killing Jews almost on a daily basis with knives and Car ramming attacks since October).

But what was really striking about Pres. Abbas' insidiousness was a veiled threat in a cryptic message:
We are now engaging in a popular uprising that includes massive protests and demonstrations against the occupation. I am interested in starting direct negotiations with any Israeli figure – be it an Israeli MK, Ashkenazi Jew or Sephardic Jew.
Interesting structure, isn't it? “Popular Uprising” (intifada), “massive” (calling upon all Arabs in Palestine), “occupation” (enemy), “I'm interested” (I'm ordering), “direct negotiations” (direct attack), “with” (against), “any Israeli figure: be it an Israeli MK, Ashkenazi Jew or Sephardic Jew” (either a Jewish Member of the Knesset, or the Ashkenazi Chief Rabbi or the Sephardic Chief Rabbi – take a pick and attack). We wonder what prompted the selection of such targets? Why does the PLO want to silence Rabbis, at whose behest and in exchange for how much?

הֵילִילוּ, כִּי קָרוֹב יוֹם יְהוָה; כְּשֹׁד, מִשַּׁדַּי יָבוֹא

"Howl ye, for the day of the Lord is at hand; as the destruction from the Almighty shall it come." - Isaiah 13:6


(Image: Before a Captured Russian Trench - László Mednyánszky)

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]

Comments

  1. Regardless of the logic, the timing of Putin's withdrawal was perfect for its sheer unexpectedness! He keeps the West unbalanced.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rummy :D!

      It was quite a surprise, indeed. It's good for a change, isn't it?
      My friend, thank you for your comment :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
    2. This is quite interesting! http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/world/middleeast/bashar-al-assad-syria-russia-west.html?emc=edit_th_20160326&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=53809129&_r=0

      Delete
  2. Abbas is desperate for cash that's why he gave that ridiculous interview. What if he was giving instructions to Hamas elements in Turkey? After this interview there was an attack in Turkey where Israelis were targeted!
    Putin caught everybody by surprise and that was awesome to see, regardless of my personal feelings toward the guy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "What if he was giving instructions to Hamas elements in Turkey? After this interview there was an attack in Turkey where Israelis were targeted!" - good tip. Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Hi Anon :D!

      That is also a possible scenario, yes. Thank you. We'll look into it.
      He really did and I'm glad he did. Putin is shaking the waters.

      Anon, thank you for your comment :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  3. Abbas could also have been signalling that there would be further attacks not only in Turkey but also in the EU. We have to consider that Fatah has reactivated its EU Operations and may be working with other groups.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Unknown :D!

      If our considerations are proven right, then Fatah/PLO has been conducting terrorist operations inside the EU with EU funding: how ironic is that? Thanks for that tip, it's highly useful.

      Unknown, and thank you for your super comment. If you are new to DS, welcome and I hope you return more often :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  4. Putin was very smart but apart from boosting confidence of his soldiers and selling more guns, did he destroy IS? No. Does he intend to do it only after the world unites with him like he urged people to do today after terrorist attack in Brussels? Palestinian Arabs are murderers and their mask is falling. We can't ignore the coincidence of Abbas talking and shit happening, can we? It's too obvious now and an investigation is warranted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Pietr :D!

      How are you, man?
      He didn't destroy ISIS but he showed that he could if he wanted to. Besides, he showed what's like to get to a place, get the job done and get the hell out of there (a message to America, like "there's no possible argument for inaction"). He showed that intervention is possible without nation building, capisce?

      No, we can't ignore the "coincidences", you are right.

      Pietr, thank you so much for your super comment :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  5. Well well well, Palestinians want to show the world they are not the underdog after all! They are showing their real colors now. I agree with unknown, Fatah/PLO has reactivated its EU operations and networks! We are back to 1972 only this time with European money. And American funds too! Putin is smarter than we think, if I was the west I'd pay attention to him, don't be distracted by the terror attacks.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Cêcê :D!

      They are. Ah, they will pay for 1972 (I still haven't forgotten that), and for all the attacks they have perpetrated against Jewish blood till this day; without needing to stoop to their murderous level.
      What do you think Putin will do next?

      Celeste, thank you so much for your comment :D. I think I will call you Cece from now on without the "acento circumflexo", what say you?

      Cheers

      Delete
  6. Putin kicked Obama's ass that's what he did. But he didn't finish ISIS off, why? Maybe like you said, his goal was to sell arms. Or he wanted to show a fraction of what he can do and maybe invite others to join him? I don't know.
    Abbas is an asshole that needs to be stopped. And Europe will continue to suffer terrorist attacks as long as they continue to give political and financial support to "Palestine", can't they see that? Fuck me. Meanwhile innocent people die. Good job, Max.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mike :D!

      I think he wanted to show a fraction of what can be done to ISIS if others are really honest about this fight. I also think he wanted to show that the US-led coalition is not serious about countering the group and that alone should make America think. I'd love to see the US and Russia working together, but I doubt that the State Dept has the creativity for it. They still think the old way...

      Europe is blind, it can see anything that may hurt their ego. To admit they were wrong is too painful. So they prefer to subject the people to terrorism; until an attack strikes a politician, and it might: in Brussels they sent the proper message to the EU.

      Thanks, Michael, and thanks for your super comment too :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  7. Let us also factor in the huge arms sales that the Super Powers are gaining from all of this. It also a proving ground for all of these new weapons and UAVs, not to mention SF Operations. We have to also factor in the success of IS, Al Nusra and AQ (Khorsasan Group as well)and the creation of SF units among these forces. A simple mounting of a high calibre weapon on a Toyota Hilux and make shift armor has created a new market for such.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unknown,

      Yes, everyone is profiting from all this. It's like the eternal war between Israel and the Arabs: almost all sides involved, and beyond, are benefiting from it.

      Cheers

      Delete

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