Territorial Justice in the Middle East: Was the Forecast Right or Wrong?


Yesterday, the first Indicator was shown to be spot on. Today we are going to take a look at the second indicator concerning the Middle East. How well did DS do?

Indicator B: Territorial Justice in the ME

2015 witnessed an ever increasing activity in the Middle East, with ISIS as the main player. This group has been forming the Caliphate under a brutal and bloody regime – one that we thought had been left behind in the Dark Ages. This year has also witnessed the power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran through proxy wars on fields like the military [Yemen, Iraq and Syria] and diplomacy [with Sudan as a “pawn”].

Another interesting aspect was the sign of rapprochement between Arab states and Israel. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signalled some progress towards the Jewish State, though we still await a more courageous step towards the normalisation of relations (as soon as the Arab nations realise that the Middle East can be a power region if they ally themselves with Israel – which is something that America would probably not view with good eyes).

Turkey is also resuming its relationship with Israel.

There has been no definitive deal signed yet, but a draft is being worked on - Omer Celik, AKP Deputy Chairman 

This same official stated that “the state of Israel and its people are friends of Turkey”; therefore, although some mistrust still persists, everything seems to indicate that ME countries are starting to realise the benefits of working together, instead of warring each other to political (and physical) demise. If you can't beat them, join them.

When we look at Syria now, we identify the battle of State System vs Territorial Mosaic; where:

  • ISIS endeavours to destroy the borders created by the Sykes-Picot Agreement and reunite Sunni Arab territory
  • The Kurds endeavour to protect their controlled regions (both in Iraq and Syria, inspiring thus the Turkish Kurds) with independence in mind
  • The Druze, in South of Syria, endeavour to protect their region from ISIS with the long-desired self-rule (in the Jabal al-Druze State) in mind
  • The Alawites, under Bashar al-Assad, endeavour to protect their region bearing a future partition in mind (with Russian support). 

Therefore, as it was stated in January: territorial justice is desired and is slowly being done in the Middle East.


Palestine

The Palestinian issue is slowly being dropped; though not by words. The words of support are still heard, although the Arabs in Palestine are looking at the various rapprochement moves, and begin to despair.
ISIS has linked its cause to the “Palestinian" one, which is not surprising given the expansionist nature of Global Jihad. But since Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and others signal the wish to distance themselves from ISIS, it is now convenient to step back from the Palestinian spotlight while working with Israel for the good of the region:

If they want the West out of their affairs, they must be out of Israel's as well: all it takes is political will and bravado - Political Indicators for 2015

Before this new scenario, the Palestinians are turning to Europe for recognition of a ex-nihilo state; however, the conjuncture works against them. The European countries that now support their endeavours (label crisis, non-binding recognition of territory etc) will one day drop them, when historical justice begins to be done with the proper legal instruments.


Verdict


DS' vision was correct. The pieces are being moved in a very interesting fashion as Muslims, and other minorities, in what is viewed as the Arab World,  want full control over their old territory, under their own set of laws; thus rejecting the Sykes-Picot territorial design. In more simple wording, the different tribes want a territorial composition similar to what was before western interference. Shouldn't their aspirations be respected?




(Image: Syria by the Sea - Frederic Edwin Church)

Comments

  1. This reminds me a bit of Hitler's attempts to unite the German ethnic peoples prior to his expansion phase. It is quite natural for like ethnicities to band together for defense or offense, so the Kurds have been trying to reunite their peoples for decades. The current state of chaos seems to me to be the driver, rather than any abstract ideals. Likewise, any warming towards Israel seems to me due to the existence of bigger and more immediate threats. So the 2015 forecast looks good.

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    1. Hi Looney :D!

      It's curious the relationship between Global Jihad and Nazism, isn't it? Too many similarities.
      Great analysis, as always, Looney. And thank you for your feedback :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  2. Iraq says that ISIS will be defeated in 2016, are the conditions on the ground fertile to reach such goal? Not sure. But if they fail, I'll suggest Iraq to hire you guys cause their prediction ability may suck :-) Congrats.

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    1. Hi Anon :D!

      Maybe. But what should worry us is that they may either regroup and increase their attacks or they may change their strategy and focus on Global Jihad instead (or both). Either way, it's bad.
      LOL LOL that's funny. Thank you for your feedback :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  3. First, congrats for another successful forecast. Second, not sure I trust the Arabs and Turks with their rapprochement but it's true the signs are all there. I also think the ME could be huge if old rivalries could be erased, we don't have to suddenly love each other but we can work together for a common goal, right? I really wish the Kurds manage to get their land back! Palestine: the third intifada was a nail on their coffin, that's for sure! But they still got a lot of leverage with the European idiots.

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    1. Hi Raquel :D!

      Thank you *bowing*. We don't have to trust certain people, but if there's a common purpose and good coming from a relationship then we must take advantage of it. Exactly.
      Europe will eventually realise the dangers of siding with the "Palestinian cause". It's only a matter of time.

      Raquel, thank you so much for your feedback, darling :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  4. Congratulations. I too believe that a kind of consolidation among old tribal and local communities will eventually emerge.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Rummy :D!

      Thank you *bowing*. Indeed...
      My friend, thanks for your feedback :D.

      Cheers

      Delete

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