Notes on the Arab Predicaments: ISIS, Palestine, Yemen & Iran



By Benn Ramnarine

1.  The Pan Arab Nationalism drive is still there and Egypt was to spearhead it (Gamal Abdul Nasser ideology): a reason why Sisi is so active with the coalition and why he is also involved in Libya.  He has also upheld the Camp David Peace Accords.

2.  The Arab countries did not and still cannot fathom the ISIL/AQ threat and how quickly they have matured into an occupation force.  All efforts to eradicate them have failed with their own countries and they have to spend billions to support countries like Lebanon, Libya, [and groups like] the FSA etc.

3.  The Iranian threat and the spread of Shiism is another threat that the Saudis did not anticipate and have no defense against. Iran has out maneuvered the Arab world, the EU and even the US, and now is a major deciding factor in the M/E and Africa, with a sound global reach.

4.  Where exactly do the Palestinians stand in all of this is a dilemma to the Arab countries and, the Palestinians are used as pawns and massacred as well. Look at the situation in the camp in Syria. It is toss up as the Arabs know that the PLO is divided in their own camp. They want the PLO to make a decision as to whose side they are on. Support for Hamas from Gulf countries has slowed and Iran is now the major supplier of funding, materials and weapons. The connection with the Hizbullah and the increase in Muslim Brotherhood (MB) activity in Egypt, mainly in the N. Sinai, would also appear that Hamas may be assisting the MB in some of their Operations.

5.  The Arab countries have also come to the realization that support for the Palestinian cause cannot assist them with the AQ/ISIL/Iranian threat within their own countries and Kingdoms.

6.  Iranian control of Yemen is also a major strategic victory as it will give it control of the sea lanes out of the Suez and the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the southern borders with Saudi Arabia and the Eastern border of Oman.  It will also spread its influence (as it is doing now in Somalia and the Sudan) into Eritriea, Djibuti, etc.

7.  Perhaps the Arab countries want the PLO military arms to rise up again, so they can use them to fight their wars against the enemy (AQ, ISIL, Iran).

8.  There is also the possibility that the Arabs have now begun to understand what Israel has been experiencing all these years as they now have to fight for their own survival and, do not have a strategy on how to achieve it. They will make some very serious mistakes and spend billions on hiring large foreign firms to come up with a solution.

9. They realize that a unified strategy may benefit them all, if they can all agree to one. Difficult to achieve. This can have a negative effect for Israel though.

Comments

  1. The Arabs should have the balls to align themselves with Israel once and for all. The gains of doing that are obvious and the hatred only serves the interests of the West. Think about it!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Benn :D!

    Welcome to Dissecting Society. It is a true pleasure to have you among us *bowing*.

    Your thoughts on the situation in the Middle East are interesting:
    1. I think Pan Arab nationalism has failed because there's lack of unity within the Arab states. Someone said, a propos the Yemen crisis, that even the coalition would fail because since when Arabs can agree on whatsoever? Plus, Sisi's active commitment to the coalition may have broader readings.

    2. Yeah, they financed those groups and now they have turned against them. How ironic.

    3. Iran has been sleek. Mazels to them! Of course, they needed western acquiescence to maximise their power and reach.

    4. I agree. In the end, Palestinians are being abandoned by their own. This is not the 60's and the 70's any longer, is it? Priorities have change and now all it's left is the Vatican support.

    5. Well said. Again, not the 60's and 70's.

    6. Affirmative. Now wonder the Saudi King didn't attend Pres. Obama's summit.

    7. That would explain the Yarmouk incident, but is the PLO armed wing rising again? And if so, won't it ruin their international standing?

    8. Waste of money and time.

    9. If they all unite there's the chance that they will turn against Israel, yes. But where does Pres. Obama stand in all of this?

    Benn, what a great start. Thank you so much :D.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Arabs have no possibility of ever facing anyone unitedly. Their schisms and jealousies run too deep for that to happen. It is only fitting that they are now killing each other off. The idea that they should join forces with Israel is wishful thinking. The Palestinian problem will not go away irrespective of Iran's support or otherwise. Actually, some very interesting days are ahead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rummy, the Palestinian problem will go away, eventually (it has too). But it won't be in the way that most of the world wants it to be. But I agree with you: very interesting days are ahead.

      Delete
  4. Sisi will fail if he pursues the Arabism angle, for it's pretty clear that secularism is not what people want in the Middle East. Religion is important, it matters. Tradition is important! So once we stop looking at the Middle East as some experience lab for our superior democratic values, those people may actually get some peace. Please don't read this as pointing fingers, cause I'm not doing that at all, I'm just trying to find solutions and imposing secularism on those folks and denying them a deeply religious identity is not it. How I missed this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  5. They caused the mess and now don't know what to do with it? Says a lot about these people. But it would be good to see them forget that lie of palestine!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Shouldn't probably say this but I'm supporting the Iranians in this new showdown. Really! The Arabs have been nothing but a headache for the world and now we deserve to see some change. If they attack Israel, Israel will deal with them but they'd be pretty stupid to do that!

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Dissecting Society welcomes all sorts of comments, as we are strong advocates of freedom of speech; however, we reserve the right to delete Troll Activity; libellous and offensive comments (e.g. racist and anti-Semitic) plus those with excessive foul language. This blog does not view vulgarity as being protected by the right to free speech. Cheers