Political Indicators for 2015

Tethys the Spy - NASA

2014 ended with a bang when the UNSC rejected PA's unilateral move (to have a state ex nihilo recognised) – bravo.
So, what can be expected this year? Some indicators point to the following:

Europe's continued decline
The European Union, unfortunately, will continue to decline since it refuses to heed the voice of the people (who, among many things, are increasingly against the Islamisation of Europe) and of those member states that call for a complete re-structure of the European project. For the moment, the EU is lost. In truth, it has been so for quite a while because not only it became megalomaniac but mainly because it has grown into this bureaucratic-socialist-style machine that forgot its original purpose: economic integration (FTA, customs Union, common market). Over the years the Union has deviated from the European forefathers' vision and overstepped political boundaries.
The European project should be re-structured and simplified (as much as it hurts those who are used to build careers at the expense of tax payers): keep the tariff-free zones and the free movement of people and goods, but obliterate redundant institutions (e.g. the European Parliament).

Territorial Justice in the ME
Historical justice in the Middle East (ME) will begin to be done. 2015 will be the year when the ME pieces will begin to be placed back into their proper place.
The Islamic State (IS) is an appalling terrorist group, notwithstanding the organisation bears a common Islamic message: Muslims, in the Arab World, want full control over their territory, under their own set of laws; and they reject the Sykes-Picot territorial design. In other words, the western interference in the ME didn't work – the different tribes want a territorial composition similar to what was before the French and the British stuck their finger in their matters. However, in order to achieve their goal, Arab nations need to realise one thing: they will have to live with a secure Israel, meaning that justice needs to be done there too – territorial claims ex nihilo (as a way to de-legitimise the Jewish State) will no longer be accepted. If they want the West out of their affairs, they must be out of Israel's as well: all it takes is political will and bravado.

US: return of the mack
The US will re-emerge as the world's leading power. It's economy is growing (in fact, it's the only top tier country whose economy is moving upwards, having grown 5% in the third quarter of 2014), employment rates are going up, it is now energy-independent; for the first time in 40 years it will start exporting oil («The United States, now officially the world's largest oil producer, will, for the first time since 1975, allow the export of “made in USA” oil.») and it will begin to move away from Arab nations, towards new fruitful ventures in Asia and Africa.

India & Japan: Asian Power-houses
India and Japan will give the first steps to deepen their relationship, in order to regain a leading position in Asia. This won't be an easy step for, as Rohan Mukherjee and Anthony Yakazi wrote, “Beijing keeps a close eye on evolving India-Japan ties and aims in the long term to prevent an excessively warm embrace between two of its rivals.” since the Red Dragon knows that once the ties between these two strong, democratic and free countries deepen they are in a much better position to challenge China's role in the world.
“Both countries have an interest in countering China’s rise without provoking conflict or any form of escalation.” - this year, Cristina Giancchini (as of now, our editor-in-chief) will share with us how, in her opinion, India managed to rise to power without challenging China to the point of conflict. If Japan-India relations indeed intensify – as we think they will - the two countries will rise as regional leaders and world power-houses.

Final Notes
We have a more pragmatic view of Russia's activities: last year it forced the EU to expose its political & military vulnerabilities (i.e. their hands were tied) and, as per the indicators, its tacit deal with the US will start to pay off. The Islamic problem must be dealt with.
2015 will also mark the year where the academic and political universe will be confronted with the reality of the need for two things: 1- a new economic model (since the old ones don't explain current phenomena), 2- new indicators of power (as we have seen: population, GDP, contributions to UN Peacekeeping missions and number of signed treaties are not suitable reflections of power).
This year, we will see elections taking place in the UK, Israel, Portugal, Canada, Spain, Greece, Nigeria, Tanzania, Trinidad & Tobago, Argentina (see more here) – these are important elections because they represent, for instance, the difference between the continuation of fiscal discipline and going back to fiscal anarchy; the severance from the EU and a permanence in it; the difference between a secure Jewish State and indefensible borders (i.e. its demise); the security of Africa and the Islamist take-over; and, finally, the difference between a new Latin America and an obsolete Latin America.

This will be, indubitably, a very interesting year; and we invite you to experience it in our company.
2015 is here: let's get cracking.

Comments

  1. Why can't GDP be an indicator of power?

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    1. Hi Anonymous :D!

      Because many countries with high GDP remain poor in terms of human development. So I wonder if human development indexes aren't a much better power indicator than GDP per se...what do you think?

      Anon, thank you so much for that great question. :D

      Cheers

      Delete
  2. India has to solve a lot of bureaucratic problems before it can go deeper on her relations with Japan and vice versa from my understanding, although the Indian case seems to be worst as they try to shed the many layers of protectionism imposed by previous administrations. But like you I'm hopeful that these obstacles can be surmounted and that we see greater developments this year. It would alter the dynamics in the region that's for sure!

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    1. Those will be solved in the next couple of years.

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    2. Hi Follower :D!

      Good assessment and I'm glad you agree with Rummuser and I that everything will be sorted out eventually.
      Thank you for your comment :D.

      Cheers

      Delete
  3. When is Europe ever going to learn the lesson? Germany is so worried about the Pegida movement but let's remind ourselves why these movements are sprouting, Max: will you do the honors? They should read your blog cause you have warned Europe about this time and time again!
    If the Arabs want something they got to give something, well done! Leave us alone and we'll leave you guys alone, it's that simple.
    I just hope Portugal doesn't elect the same people that destroyed the country and good luck for Israel!
    Anyway, Max, I'm ready for another year of political excitement in your company!

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    1. Hi Cêcê :D!

      Today's attack, in Paris, is evidence enough that movements like PEGIDA have a solid case. Why, thank you, don't mind if I will: these "movements are sprouting" because governments insist on policies of appeasement (they are to blame for the current situation). If they don't change their stance, things will get worse.

      Celeste, cheers for a great comment :D.

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  4. India and Japan being coaxed into alliance by China is a new thought to me, but certainly plausible.

    The EU has been having troubles beginning with Caligula's failure to make the Germans respect authority. I will be cheering for the Greeks as they rebel, even though they are doing it for all the wrong reasons!

    As for the US, I am not so optimistic: The labor participation rate has dropped much faster than demographics would warrant, while our unemployment measures are drastically different from those of Europe. The GDP improvement has also come at the price of a massive debt increase, so that the US is comparable to Greece in terms of debt to tax revenue ratio.

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    1. Hi Looney :D!

      The Greeks seem to be bent on repeating past mistakes, but good luck to them nevertheless.
      Debt is a complex business; it involves so many things that I'm very cautious when comes to it. However, I understand your concern. Nevertheless, your country seems to be in a far much better shape than any of the European ones, so at least be proud of that.

      Looney, thank you so much for your comment :D.

      Cheers

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  5. Good analysis and forecast and I would just like to add a couple of notes of interest to the readers of this blog. Indo Israel ties will strengthen further and such strengthening will be overt. India's ties with other Eastern countries will also strengthen further and that will include Bangladesh.

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    1. Hi Rummy :D!

      Thank you *bowing*.
      Excellent notes: from your lips to God's ears. Is Bangladesh ready for such an overture?
      Thank you so much for complementing this article and for your comment :D.

      Cheers

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  6. Happy new year, Max! I agree with most of your forecast with exception to Russia: Russia tries to bring cold war so Putin can get domestic support. So what tacit agreement could he make with Obama that would give him an advantage and advantage over what?

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    1. Hi Pietr :D!

      Happy New Year, my friend.
      Ah, that's for another article...can't disclose it just yet. But you ask important questions, well done.

      Pietr, thank you so much for your comment and here's to 2015 :D.

      Cheers

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  7. Russia is up to something, no doubt so we might see a war in Europe's backyard soon. I'm not so optimist about the ME though, unless we see some serious change in leadership we'll continue to be victims of the Islamic wrath. Happy new year, Max!

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    1. Hi Carl :D!

      I'm inclined to agree with you (on Russia). It's true, isn't it? But when you speak of leadership: their side or our side or both?
      Happy new year, my friend :D. And thank you for your comment.

      Cheers

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  8. As regards EU, I agree they have forgotten the original purpose of economic integration of the the European nations. Maybe if it was on track, it could have given a boost in other continents too.

    Middle-east I believe will maintain the status quo as economically they may be closer but politically and socially it is till quite fragmented with the hidden forces out to stop any kind of complete unity. As regards US, it needs a new and more dynamic administration maybe change in the top leadership. The present one is to conservative too comfort.

    India and Japan still has a long way to go but has the potential to provide counterbalance to China. Although India under the new administration is far more aggressive and positive in its intent.

    Indeed a new economic model is the need of the hour. Politically its about the leadership in the administrations so it would be ever fluctuating but over 2014. Russia has shown that it still is a passive volcano and shouldn't be written off and yes the new Oil dynamics will surely change a few equations as the US stops pampering the middle-east allies, who will have to look for innovative ideas in the Oil front to maintain their relevance.

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    1. Hi Kalyan :D!

      Indeed.
      But the status quo, in the ME, must change otherwise violence will never end and they will lose the West's support, eventually, because of it. If they won't do it voluntarily, they may have to be pushed towards it - and then what? The Kurds will fight to have their land back and Arab nations won't be able to stop it...so they better think about change.

      It will be a delight to see the US stop pampering the ME associates, especially those who sponsor terrorism.

      K, thank you ever so much for your super comment :D.

      Cheers

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  9. India always seems to me to be too relaxed, so I always doubt that they can challenge whomsoever. But Kalyan said it right, Modi's actions are more aggressive and more open so let's see. I don't trust Russia and maybe Putin will take advantage of the war on terrorism that Europe will wage to act more aggressively, it's a country to keep an eye on! As to Europe: they're now paying for their recklessness.

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    1. Hi Leila :D!

      Well, the previous administration was too lax, it's true. But PM Modi is changing the dynamics of things; but obviously he has a lot to sort out first...so it won't be easy. Nevertheless, he can work with PM Abe to start moving in the right direction.
      You are not the first person telling me that about Russia: hmm...you and my boss may have a point on Russia.
      Indeed, they are.

      Leila, thank you so much for your comment :D.

      Cheers

      Delete

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